Survey: Hochul In Surprising Dead Heat for LG Primary; Cuomo Continues to Cruise Among Democrat Primary Voters

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A statewide survey commissioned by Big Dog Strategies, in conjunction with Remington Research Group, shows Lieutenant Governor Kathy Hochul in a statistical dead heat (28% to 25%) with her opponent New York City Councilman Jumaane Williams among likely 2018 Democratic Primary Election voters.

This survey also provides more bad news for Hochul as Democratic voters have a more unfavorable opinion of her (20%) than a favorable one (17%). Her opponent is more liked by statewide Democrats with a 21% favorable rating vs. only 14% unfavorable.  Williams also leads Hochul by 29% among African-American Democratic Primary voters in the State (47%-18%).

“The race for Lieutenant Governor is a toss-up at this point, which is troubling news for Hochul and, potentially, Cuomo.  After four years as Lieutenant Governor you would think that Hochul would be in a stronger position; however 70% of New York City Democratic voters have no opinion of her.  But even more concerning for her is that for those NYC voters with an opinion, she is viewed more unfavorably (21%) then favorably (9%),” said Christopher Grant, President & CEO of Big Dog Strategies.

Governor Andrew Cuomo continues to cruise among Democratic Primary Voters with a 59% favorable rating. He also has a comfortable 40% lead over his Democratic challenger Cynthia Nixon (60% to 20%) for the September 13th Democratic Primary.  

“Andrew Cuomo’s strength among minority voters (70%-18%), particularly in New York City, poses a unique problem to Hochul (10%-27%), given her subpar standing with African-American voters critical in this campaign.  The stronger Andrew Cuomo campaigns in urban communities, the more problematic that becomes for his hand-picked Lieutenant Governor, who is significantly under water among African-American voters.” said Grant.

Cuomo has worked hard to defined himself as a progressive and the voters have taken notice, when asked what they think of when they hear Andrew Cuomo’s name, the first word that came to mind was “Progressive.”

“Contrary to Cynthia Nixon’s narrative, more primary voting Democrats think of Andrew Cuomo as a ‘Progressive’ than any other label,” said Grant. “Perhaps this is a sign that Cuomo is positioning himself for a 2020 presidential run and is trying to play to a national crowd.  Only time will tell,” concluded Grant.

The survey was cond​ucted April 7 through April 8, 2018. 2,038 likely 2018 Democratic Primary Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2018 Democratic Primary Election. The margin of error is +/-2.17% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding.

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