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It only snowed once last week.
The great outdoors slowly turn from grayish brown to a grayish, brownish green.
And, in another annual tradition, area hockey fans are reduced to calculating the shrinking odds of capturing a playoff spot that the Buffalo Sabres in no way deserve.
All of which means one thing to much of Western New York's sporting populace.
It's baseball season.
Which, for at least a plurality of area fandom, means it's Yankees season. And for those of us not born wearing pinstripes and who didn't grow up with stories of the Babe, the Iron Horse and the Yankee Clipper drilled into our brains like biblical fables, early spring is usually a time to figure out some way, any way, that we might not have to watch the Bronx's Finest stomp inexorably to another World Series.
Not this year. Sure, the Yankees finally fell an inning short last fall. But it took one of the greatest one-two pitching performances of all time, the simultaneous aging of several Yankee bats and the long-awaited proof of Mariano Rivera's humanity to end New York's four-peat bid.
Luis Gonzalez's bloop single ended the only World Series ever to leak into November and gladdened many hearts. At last, thought the Yankee haters, the dynasty was crumbling, or at least decaying. That reassuring thought lingered for about a month in the vengeful minds possessed by fans of the Red Sox, Indians, Blue Jays, Mets and a couple dozen other teams. Right up until the time George Steinbrenner made Jason Giambi the centerpiece of a revamped lineup.
That meant getting rid of Tino Martinez, one of their best clutch hitters, but Giambi's average overall production towers over Tino's best season. And even aside from the early front-runner for American League MVP, there's no way to look at the Yankees this spring and not see a markedly improved squad.
Which is pretty scary.
There's Derek Jeter moving into the leadoff spot, replacing Chuck Knoblauch (probably the only regular on a three-time world champion to be remembered as a stiff).
There's Rondell White taking over in left field, one of New York's few weak spots during its latest reign. While Knoblauch could still steal bases, his plummeting on-base percentage made that threat nearly irrelevant. White can not only run, but brings power to the lineup and an arm to the outfield.
There's underrated John Vander Wal to platoon with Shane Spencer in right field, providing more power than retired perennial postseason hero Paul O'Neill.
And there's Robin Ventura taking over from the faded Scott Brosius at third. Ventura's numbers were nothing special his last two seasons with the cross-city Mets, but he can still get on base and has significantly more pop than Brosius.
It's not just the newly acquired bats that figure to make the Yankees a more threatening offensive force than they've been while winning four crowns in six years. Second baseman Alfonso Soriano got the hang of major-league pitching in the second half of last year and will only get better with experience. Rookie designated hitter Nick Johnson carries the can't-miss label worn by seemingly every New York rookie.
Even the pitching improved. While most teams outside the Bronx or Oakland struggle to find four decent starting pitchers, the Yankees have six. There's been talk all winter and spring about trading Orlando Hernandez, but it hasn't happened yet. And with no real holes to fill, why would New York bother? Even if El Duque can't crack the rotation, he makes mighty fine insurance should Roger Clemens, Mike Mussina, Andy Pettite, Sterling Hitchcock or the reacquired David Wells (who, despite his newfound healthy lifestyle and less-prominent belly, remains 39 and coming off a serious back problem) break down.
The Yankees rating as an overwhelming favorite to win it all hasn't been anything unusual for the last, oh, 80 years or so. But on Opening Day, there were more serious contenders for the job of making it somewhat interesting, then being completely forgotten after the Yankees win it all, than in any year in recent memory. We're not talking about June-July wonders here, teams like last year's Twins and Phillies that make a lot of noise early and return to form late. Only real contenders need apply for this preview.
A look at the rest of the field (complete with odds of outlasting the Yankees).
BOSTON: With the lingering ownership doubts resolved and reviled General Manager Dan Duquette finally banished, the Red Sox should at least be a happier team than the one that somehow stayed in contention until August last year.
Boston's brass claims Pedro Martinez, Nomar Garciaparra and catcher Jason Varitek are fully recovered from the injuries that doomed Boston last year. Even if that's true, and all three (particularly Pedro and Nomar) can remain off the disabled list, they won't be able to contend for more than a Wild Card berth.
Even if Pedro wins 30 games (and 30 starts isn't a certainty, especially in light of a lousy spring), when you go into a season with mediocre relievers Derek Lowe and Tim Wakefield penciled in to two rotation spots, you're swimming up river. ODDS: 30-1.
ARIZONA: In stopping the Yankees short of a fourth straight title, Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling showed what two brilliant pitchers at the top of their games can do. But they're not going to win a combined 43 games again and may not have the supporting cast to even reach the playoffs again.
With third baseman Matt Williams out for at least three months with his customary serious injury (a broken leg this time around) and emerging first baseman Erubiel Durazo gone for at least six weeks, there's too little support in the aging lineup for Series hero Luis Gonzalez. Nor do the Diamondbacks possess a true lead-off hitter or stable bullpen.
Nothing against Byung-Hyun Kim, or anything. ODDS: 25-1.
CLEVELAND: The Indians aren't going to bash the snot out of anybody this year, with an offseason payroll purge removing Roberto Alomar and Juan Gonzalez from what was baseball's most dangerous batting order.
But they might be a better team. The continued development of young starters Bartolo Colon and C.C. Sabathia and continued presence of Jim Thome, along with one of the AL's deepest bullpens, should keep Cleveland atop the dismal Central Division.
Unless third baseman Travis Fryman rebounds from a hideous year, Russ Branyan stops striking out close to half the time and a couple other young starters emerge, though, the Indians won't last long once they get to the postseason. ODDS: 20-1.
HOUSTON: The Astros dumped manager Larry Dierker and the embarrassment of the name Enron emblazoned on their stadium. And they have the best group of young starters outside Oakland, making them a popular favorite in the NL Central.
But a lot of home runs will still fly out of that stadium, whatever you call it. That has a way of wrecking even the most experienced pitchers (ask the Colorado Rockies). And while Jeff Bagwell remains one of the best all-around hitters in the game and Lance Berkman figures to rebound, Moises Alou is gone and Craig Biggio is fading.
Eccentric new manager Jimy Williams has a way of getting the most out of his available talent, but the Astros have a long history of gagging in the postseason. If they even get there. ODDS: 20-1.
SEATTLE: Everything imaginable went right for the Mariners as they won 116 games last season, and they still fell short in the playoffs.
The main reason -- they have plenty of good starters, but no great ones. Seattle's lack of an ace bit them in the keister last October and the only new addition, James Baldwin, isn't a Cy Young winner, either.
Ichiro Suzuki will only get more phenomenal, but even if Bret Boone repeats his breakout season, nobody not wearing pinstripes gets all the breaks two years in a row. ODDS: 15-1.
SAN FRANCISCO: Barry Bonds, snubbed in the free-agent market despite breaking Mark McGwire's home-run record, will hit a lot of home runs and get a lot of walks.
But Jeff Kent's semi-mysterious broken wrist removes Bonds' main support in the lineup to start the year, and shortstop Rich Aurilia is going to have a tough time replicating his 37 homers of a year ago.
With the Giants' pitching remaining so-so, they'll have enough to win the NL West, but not much more. ODDS: 15-1.
OAKLAND: If the A's had Seattle's offensive balance, you'd have the Yankees. Oakland's trio of aces -- Tim Hudson, Mark Mulder and Barry Zito -- are not only young, but experienced.
Those three alone will keep Oakland in the AL West race with Seattle, but the loss of Giambi to New York and Johnny Damon to Boston will haunt them in October. If David Justice stays healthy (always a big if), the all-time leader in playoff RBIs will help, but the A's will have to settle for second-best in the AL. ODDS: 14-1.
ATLANTA: Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine aren't getting any younger and John Smoltz made the permanent move to the bullpen. Which still leaves the Braves with the best pitching in the NL East, if not the entire league.
Atlanta grabbed Gary Sheffield to beef up its creaking lineup, but the vagabond left fielder's stats are traditionally matched only by the headaches he causes off the field. Even with the rest of the rotation far less dominant than it once was and serious questions in the infield, the Braves won't make it easy for anyone.
At least until October. ODDS: 12-1.
NEW YORK METS: The Yankees' only rival for the offseason championship boosted their pathetic lineup with Alomar, Mo Vaughn, Jeromy Burnitz and Roger Cedeno.
But the Mets have lacked an ace and their pitching pick-ups, Pedro Astacio and Shawn Estes, are anything but sure things.
If Astacio and Estes return to their form of a few years ago, Vaughn stays healthy, Alomar keeps producing Hall-of-Fame numbers and the beefed-up supporting cast helps Mike Piazza's average rebound from an off season (by his mountainous standards, at least), the Mets could make it another New York-New York World Series.
That's an awful lot of ifs. ODDS: 8-1.
ST. LOUIS: Mark McGwire is gone, but given his problems with injuries and making contact last year, that might not be such a bad thing.
If not for Ichiro-mania, Albert Pujols would have been last year's most celebrated rookie and should only get better.
He may not make anyone forget McGwire any time soon, but Pujols will make his retirement easier to take.
Beyond its powerful lineup, St. Louis has a potent blend of experience (Darryl Kile and Matt Morris) and youth (Bud Smith) in its rotation, as well as a solid bullpen. That makes the Cardinals this year's pick for the dubious honor of serving as the Yankees' foil as Halloween closes in. ODDS: 6-1.
| Niagara Falls Reporter | www.niagarafallsreporter.com | April 2 2002 |